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Will the US economy drag down Europe?
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kernow
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PostPosted: Wed 07 28, 2010 6:05 pm    Post subject: Will the US economy drag down Europe? Reply with quote

A few weeks ago we were all talking about the end of Europe. However the stronger economies are showing fairly healthy growth. So will this inspire confidence in the US and boost the US economy, a counter to the news from Greece which was blamed for dragging the US economy down. Perhaps the US will drag down the stronger European countries once again? All the while China is roaring ahead. The strengthening of the Euro and GBP may hurt the recovery too and in turn the weakening dollar may boost the US.

It is all very complex isn't it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-23/u-k-expansion-german-confidence-indicate-europe-s-recovery-strengthening.html
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Michael
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PostPosted: Thu 07 29, 2010 9:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I never thought Greece was draging the US economy down, just a bunch of talking heads to make the maket drop were, there was a Fed report this week that stated in part of the country things are slowing down while other areas remain flat, I do not believe the US economy will grow much this year, there is a debateon the Bush tax cuts going on currently and if they are extended it will help and if not it will cause a drag on the economy. The talk is they will be extended for two years more but onl the middle class cut the cut for high rollers will end this year, but with gridlock in Congress who knows what we will get...........
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PostPosted: Thu 07 29, 2010 10:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

With the way markets panic on the slightest bad news I wonder if they bounce back quite the same on a bit of good news. It seems a very fickle thing and seems to be largely based on the instant ability to sell off shares and equally quickly buy shares.
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PostPosted: Thu 07 29, 2010 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I personally think it is just a blip and that the UK will again head toward a recession. The news that there was 6.6 per cent jump in construction activity - the largest quarterly rise since since 1963. I think may bolster consumer confidence a bit, but I think things are going to get worse yet.
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PostPosted: Thu 07 29, 2010 1:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not much progress to show for a trillion dollars worth of new debt. I wonder how much that works out for every job they claim to have "created" or, new terminology here, "saved"? BTW, Greece is just a gnat on Europe's economic ass, it was the trend they represented that spooked the markets.
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PostPosted: Thu 07 29, 2010 11:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This recent article claims that the USA's public sector debt is worse than that of Greece:

Click the first link.

http://news.google.com/news/search?aq=f&cf=all&ned=au&hl=en&q=uncle+sam+greece+kotlikoff
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vincent
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PostPosted: Fri 07 30, 2010 12:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wish someone would 'spook' the markets as the dollar is like 1834 here now....luckily we moved here and bought the furnishings etc at 2500.
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JD
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PostPosted: Mon 08 16, 2010 3:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vincent wrote:
wish someone would 'spook' the markets as the dollar is like 1834 here now....luckily we moved here and bought the furnishings etc at 2500.


a strong peso is just killing Colombia...it does not benefit their economy.

And since America has becoming a wasteful importing nation...it's killing us too starting with the price of oil pegged on a weak ass dollar.
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PostPosted: Mon 08 16, 2010 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Everything everybody ever bitches about about Colombia is tied to a weak peso... all the corruption and the domination of the narco-economy gets WORSE with a weak peso... a strong peso "democratizes" the economy here and forces industry to think more along the lines of added value... it internally lessens the importance of the cocaine exports and all the cronyist nepotist industries like the flowers and coffee and sugar etc...

If you really care about Colombia's LONG TERM health as a country you'd be all for a strong COP.... with a weak COP it will slide back into being a banana republic...
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vincent
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PostPosted: Mon 08 16, 2010 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rubito wrote:
Everything everybody ever bitches about about Colombia is tied to a weak peso... all the corruption and the domination of the narco-economy gets WORSE with a weak peso... a strong peso "democratizes" the economy here and forces industry to think more along the lines of added value... it internally lessens the importance of the cocaine exports and all the cronyist nepotist industries like the flowers and coffee and sugar etc...

If you really care about Colombia's LONG TERM health as a country you'd be all for a strong COP.... with a weak COP it will slide back into being a banana republic...


I'm now for a strong COP...and have my fingers crossed for low inflation.
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PostPosted: Mon 08 16, 2010 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think a stronger Euro is a stretch given that most of the countries involved are in such bad shape. If Germany is really clever they will go back to their own currency since they are the only member doing well.
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PostPosted: Mon 08 16, 2010 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good point... the German economy should be a model for Colombia's future.... VALUE ADDED EXPORTS... DESPITE the fact that Germany's economy is even MORE export-geared than that of Colombia they are doing alright..... take note...
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JD
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PostPosted: Tue 08 17, 2010 1:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rubito wrote:


If you really care about Colombia's LONG TERM health as a country you'd be all for a strong COP.... with a weak COP it will slide back into being a banana republic...


...for all your talk about China..how do you think China did it? with a strong Yaun?

Strong peso kills Colombia because it hurts businesses exporting...which cuts jobs...which kills domestic spending...

You cannot compare Germany to Colombia on any day of the week on absolutely any level.
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vincent
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PostPosted: Tue 08 17, 2010 2:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JD wrote:

You cannot compare Germany to Colombia on any day of the week on absolutely any level.


There is a bit of German influence in Colombia dating from the earliest days of exploration and immigration. Spain paid off a German loan by giving Germany the rights to explore much of this part of S. America.

The Germans then contracted a bunch of Spaniards (many from Spanish jails) and came for a walk about. While the Spaniards and everyone else went looking for el dorado the Germans either carved out what they wanted and went home or stayed. Those that stayed started things like the first steam vessels up the Magdalena river.

Here in Medellin many of the upper middle class homes are done in German styling.

Colombian food is as bland as some German foods.

I'd kill for some non canned sauerkraut from Pomona's served with some smoked pork chops. Red cabbage?
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PostPosted: Tue 08 17, 2010 8:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JD wrote:
Rubito wrote:


If you really care about Colombia's LONG TERM health as a country you'd be all for a strong COP.... with a weak COP it will slide back into being a banana republic...


...for all your talk about China..how do you think China did it? with a strong Yaun?

Strong peso kills Colombia because it hurts businesses exporting...which cuts jobs...which kills domestic spending...

You cannot compare Germany to Colombia on any day of the week on absolutely any level.


The more they ADD VALUE the less they're going to need an undervalued currency.... like I said I'm talking LONG TERM here.... pegging the Yuan is NOT something they're going to do indefinitely. Get your head out the sand!
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pedro
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PostPosted: Tue 08 17, 2010 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What kind of adding value ventures need to be created that don't already exist?

Wouldn't a lot of them fall short of being viable due to the lack of intellectual property protection in Colombia?

I mean, why bother to prove up a new idea when others will just keep copying it until all the profit is taken out?
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PostPosted: Wed 08 18, 2010 1:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

WTF are you going on about??? Intellectual property is taken VERY VERY VERY VERYYYYYYYYYYY seriously here. I personally think way too seriously actually.
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pedro
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PostPosted: Wed 08 18, 2010 7:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rubito wrote:
WTF are you going on about??? Intellectual property is taken VERY VERY VERY VERYYYYYYYYYYY seriously here. I personally think way too seriously actually.

Oops, pardon me.

In your fantasy Bogota, do they sell pirated films, music and books in plain sight at traffic lights and on the street corner?

Are cheap knockoffs of branded merchandise available at the same storefronts year after year?

If they are not, excuse me, my mistake.

Your fantasy Bogota and elmo's fantasy Barranquilla could be the two greatest places on earth. It's just a pity neither of them actually exist in the real world.
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PostPosted: Wed 08 18, 2010 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Every big city in the world has people selling pirated material on the street corners bro.

Colombia has the LOWEST level of intellectul property theft in the whole Western Hemisphere.
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PostPosted: Wed 08 18, 2010 10:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rubito wrote:
Colombia has the LOWEST level of intellectul property theft in the whole Western Hemisphere.

How do you figure that? On what evidence?

If I can go to Supercentro de la Moda in Medellin and buy fake Diesel, Tommy, Polo etc all day long, how can this country be considered serious about dealing with intellectual property theft?
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PostPosted: Wed 08 18, 2010 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

pedro wrote:
Rubito wrote:
Colombia has the LOWEST level of intellectul property theft in the whole Western Hemisphere.

How do you figure that? On what evidence?

If I can go to Supercentro de la Moda in Medellin and buy fake Diesel, Tommy, Polo etc all day long, how can this country be considered serious about dealing with intellectual property theft?


well...if Colombian's had the bandwidth to pirate the movies online like the developed countries...then you would see a lot less people selling them on the street.
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PostPosted: Wed 08 18, 2010 11:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rubito wrote:
Every big city in the world has people selling pirated material on the street corners bro.

Colombia has the LOWEST level of intellectul property theft in the whole Western Hemisphere.


I have no idea what you're talking about Rubi..

if you're Microsoft well yeah..your property is protected...that's about it..

everything else is beyond easy to copy, pirate etc .
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PostPosted: Wed 08 18, 2010 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah JD but that's a WORLDWIDE problem, hardly specific to Colombia.

I've seen first hand how SAYCO operates and I've also seen first hand how BMI and ASCAP operate. SAYCO is WAYYYYYYYY more draconian in collecting. You'd not even believe it.

I dunno where I read that statistic, but from what I've seen here first hand I have no problem believing it.

And where's this lack of bandwidth you guys are complaining about?? My internet connection works just fine here...
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PostPosted: Wed 08 18, 2010 3:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

good news on your bandwidth.

can you download HBO's John Adam's series for me and burn me some cd's, I'll send you my address.

Thanks so much!
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PostPosted: Wed 08 18, 2010 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rubito wrote:
Yeah JD but that's a WORLDWIDE problem, hardly specific to Colombia.

I've seen first hand how SAYCO operates and I've also seen first hand how BMI and ASCAP operate. SAYCO is WAYYYYYYYY more draconian in collecting. You'd not even believe it.

I dunno where I read that statistic, but from what I've seen here first hand I have no problem believing it.

And where's this lack of bandwidth you guys are complaining about?? My internet connection works just fine here...


You're kidding about the bandwidth, right? You can't pick a relatively small area and say broadband is just fine. You need to look at the country as a whole. Both the US and Colombia are lagging in bandwidth but colmbia is much further back tha the US, as a whole
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